Monday, April 16, 2012

Jets All Out 2011-12 Point Prediction Recap: Forwards


As did back in early October, I made out a list of point projections for the 2011-12 campaign based on the players past experiences, point productions, and the change of scenery coming from not-so-crazy-about-hockey Atlanta to hockey mad Winnipeg.

First were the forwards, followed by the defensemen and goaltenders. In analysis of the projections are the initial predicitions (marked in italics) and the actual end of season stats (marked in bold) and then the difference in each category (if player has more than projected, it is marked as a +).

Let's see how I did..

#26 Blake Wheeler [Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 80 GP, 23 G, 30 A, 55 PTS, 56 PIMs, +11
2011-12 Actual Stats: 80 GP, 17 G, 47 A, 64 PTS, 55 PIMs, +3
Difference: Goals (-6), Assists (+17), Points (+9), PIMs (-1), +/- (-8)


#9 Evander Kane [Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 79 GP, 26 G, 33 A, 59 PTS, 70 PIMs, +7
2011-12 Actual Stats: 74 GP, 30 G, 27 A, 57 PTS, 53 PIMs, +11
Difference: Goals (+4), Assists (-6), Points (-2), PIMs (-17), +/- (+4)


#16 Andrew Ladd [Left Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 81 GP, 31 G, 29 A, 60 PTS, 44 PIMs, +4
2011-12 Actual Stats: 82 GP, 28 G, 22 A, 50 PTS, 64 PIMs, -8
Difference: Goals (-3), Assists (-7), Points (-10), PIMs (+20), +/- (-12)


#13 Kyle Wellwood [Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 68 GP, 10 G, 20 A, 30 PTS, 10 PIMs, -2
2011-12 Actual Stats: 77 GP, 18 G, 29 A, 47 PTS, 4 PIMs, +3
Difference: Goals (+8), Assists (+9), Points (+17), PIMs (-6), +/- (+5)


#18 Bryan Little [Centre]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 80 GP, 27 G, 35 A, 62 PTS, 40 PIMs, +15
2011-12 Actual Stats: 74 GP, 24 G, 22 A, 46 PTS, 26 PIMs, -11
Difference: Goals (-3), Assists (-13), Points (-16), PIMs (-14), +/- (-26)


#80 Nik Antropov [Centre]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 74 GP, 19 G, 31 A, 50 PTS, 50 PIMs, +2
2011-12 Actual Stats: 69 GP, 15 G, 20 A, 35 PTS, 42 PIMs, 0
Difference: Goals (-4), Assists (-11), Points (-15), PIMs (-8), +/- (-2)


#8 Alex Burmistrov [Centre/Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 77 GP, 20 G, 21 A, 41 PTS, 28 PIMs, +3
2011-12 Actual Stats: 76 GP, 13 G, 15 A, 28 PTS, 42 PIMs, +4
Difference: Goals (-7), Assists (-6), Points (-13), PIMs (+14), +/- (+1)


#14 Tim Stapleton [Right Wing/Centre]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 60 GP, 9 G, 12 A, 21 PTS, 16 PIMs, -4
2011-12 Actual Stats: 63 GP, 11 G, 16 A, 27 PTS, 10 PIMs, -2
Difference: Goals (+2), Assists (+4), Points (+6), PIMs (-6), +/- (+2)


#19 Jim Slater [Centre]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 78 GP, 11 G, 12 A, 23 PTS, 22 PIMs, +1
2011-12 Actual Stats: 78 GP, 13 G, 8 A, 21 PTS, 42 PIMs, -9
Difference: Goals (+2), Assists (-4), Points (-2), PIMs (+20), +/- (-10)


#15 Tanner Glass [Left Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 78 GP, 5 G, 8 A, 13 PTS, 92 PIMs, -3
2011-12 Actual Stats: 78 GP, 5 G, 11 A, 16 PTS, 73 PIMs, -12
Difference: Goals (0), Assists (+3), Points (+3), PIMs (-19), +/- (-9)


#22 Chris Thorburn [Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 82 GP, 10 G, 11 A, 21 PTS, 85 PIMs, -1
2011-12 Actual Stats: 72 GP, 4 G, 7 A, 11 PTS, 83 PIMs, -6
Difference: Goals (-6), Assists (-4), Points (-10), PIMs (-2), +/- (-5)


#17 Eric Fehr [Right Wing]
2011-12 Projected Stats: 40 GP, 11 G, 14 A, 25 PTS, 14 PIMs, +10
2011-12 Actual Stats: 35 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS, 12 PIMs, -6
Difference: Goals (-9), Assists (-13), Points (-21), PIMs (-2), +/- (-16)


Throughout the season, I didn't manage to quip back to these projections much but I did see some shortcomings that would eventually make the predictions come up short.

First of all, Eric Fehr's injury plagued season did more than keep him out of the lineup - it kept his point production at a career low - even when he was playing junior hockey. To say that 2011-12 was Fehr's worst season ever would be a good approximation of his play. But to his disadvantage, he was injured when traded from Washington. It is unclear whether the Jets will risk taking him on again if he can begin a season completely healthy and ready to go from day one. However, it may be unlikely as he did have a stretch of healthy games where he did not produce either.

Other shortcomings were overestimating Alex Burmistrov's year, as he progressed into his sophomore season. Believing he would find the goal scorers touch, the young Russian found scoring early in the year (enough for me to pick him up in my fantasy pool for a stretch), but the reverted into playing a more two-way game as the year progressed - possibly because of the emergence of Kyle Wellwood's play - another shortcoming.

Wellwood exceeded expectations of all Jets fans and if the Jets are to resign him it will come at a price. The speedy and versatile forward set career highs in points (47) and tied his career high in goals (18) while pitching in 10 power play points on the secondary unit. It was Wellwood's versatility and hockey sense that gave way to a big boost from predictions in Evander Kane.

Kane's third season proved to be a breakout one - but the best is still yet to come I believe. Kane surpassed career highs in goals (30), assists (27), points (57), power play goals (6), power play points (10), and game winning goals (4). He was also a team high +11 rating at season's end. Despite a rough start and possible off ice happenings that led to a concussion in the early part of 2012, Kane is one of the key cogs in the Jets this season as is Blake Wheeler.

Wheeler rejoined Bryan Little and Andrew Ladd on the Jets top line and had a career year as well playing the role of power forward as best as anyone else in the league. The Minnesotan's career highs came in assists (47), points (64), power play goals (6), power play points (15), shots on goal (208), and hits (113). Add to that Bryan Little resurfaced as a 20 goal scorer and Ladd followed his 29 goal season a year ago in Atlanta with 28 goals and the top line produced the majority of the Jets offense between them.

To complete the evaluation of my 2011-12 point projections for the forwards, the Jets have alot of room to make up for offensive production as their top point producer finished tied for 41st in the league in points - and every other NHL team except Columbus, Florida, Minnesota, Nashville, St. Louis, and Colorado had a leading scorer with more points - including non-playoff teams such as Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Carolina, and Montreal.

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